CoreWeave Credit Swaps Top 1,240 Basis Points Before Earnings

CoreWeave and Nebius shares have each fallen by roughly half over the past month, and the cost of insuring CoreWeave's debt against default has jumped to its highest level yet, as investors question whether the AI cloud providers can keep servicing heavy borrowing before both report quarterly earnings this week, CNBC reported Monday.

The five-year credit default swap spread on CoreWeave's debt has climbed above 1,240 basis points, up about 50% in a month, according to CNBC. Bonds maturing in 2031 are yielding more than 16%. A separate analysis from BigGo Finance put the five-year swap spread at about 1,155 basis points as of November 6, after touching 1,289 basis points the day before, and said CoreWeave's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 7.1 as of June 30, with $35.5 billion in debt against $5.5 billion in cash and $5 billion in shareholder equity.

The strain comes from a financing model built on borrowing heavily to fund GPU data centers against contracts from hyperscalers like Microsoft, which accounted for about 67% of CoreWeave's 2025 revenue, according to BigGo Finance. CoreWeave reported $2.58 billion in revenue and a $626 million net loss in the second quarter, with net interest expense of $640 million, roughly a quarter of revenue, BigGo Finance said. In the first half of 2026, operating cash flow of $3.66 billion fell $10.45 billion short of $14.12 billion in capital spending.

CoreWeave is due to report third-quarter results Tuesday; Nebius follows Thursday. LSEG consensus cited by CNBC expects CoreWeave revenue to rise 160% year over year to about $3.55 billion, and Nebius to grow sixfold to roughly $908 million.

Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Power Lunch" the market narrative has turned "just so negative," calling it a self-fulfilling pattern.

"It's a doom cycle, where if the creditors are worried about CoreWeave paying back their debts, then of course they have to borrow going forward to fund their AI infrastructure build at exorbitant rates." – Paul Meeks, Freedom Capital Markets, to CNBC

CoreWeave chief executive Mike Intrator pushed back in a LinkedIn post cited by CNBC, writing that the company does not expect the political climate to affect its existing customer commitments or backlog. Daniel Roberts, co-chief executive of rival IREN, told CNBC there is a "disconnect between what we're seeing in public markets and what we're seeing at the customer level," though he said capital markets have grown more selective about financing in recent weeks. Morningstar analyst Luke Yang said CoreWeave's depressed stock price limits its ability to raise equity, adding to the financing gap.

The sell-off followed last week's midterm elections, in which voters rejected data center proposals in all but one of 41 related ballot measures, CNBC reported, and coincided with the fallout from Nvidia's disclosure that chief executive Jensen Huang had a relationship with a person described by intelligence officials as a Chinese spy. Nvidia, which bought about 23 million CoreWeave shares at $87.20 each in January, saw that stake fall nearly 47% in value after CoreWeave closed at $46.40 on November 6, according to BigGo Finance.

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at Partners Group, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" that neoclouds will likely bear the brunt of any credit tightening. CoreWeave disclosed a new multiyear deal to supply Nvidia Blackwell chip capacity to self-driving car developer Wayve on the same day, though its stock still slipped in premarket trading. The company's financing strain echoes concerns raised in October about debt across the broader AI infrastructure buildout. CoreWeave and Nebius did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment. Tuesday's earnings call will be the first test of whether either company can calm the market.