MIT’s Iceberg Index Reveals AI Can Replace 11.7% of U.S. Workforce Across Key Sectors
MIT’s Iceberg Index shows current AI systems can perform 11.7-12% of U.S. workforce tasks, simulating 151 million workers in finance, healthcare, and services, with states like Tennessee using the tool for AI workforce planning.
A groundbreaking study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), reveals that existing AI systems have the technical capability to replace between 11.7% and 12% of tasks currently performed by the U.S. workforce. This corresponds to the work of approximately 151 million simulated workers across industries such as finance, healthcare, and professional services, marking a significant insight into AI’s immediate impact on the labor market.
Known as the Iceberg Index, the study goes beyond traditional employment metrics by focusing on skills-centered exposure—identifying the overlap between AI-performable tasks and human labor skills at a granular level spanning over 923 occupations and 3,000 counties. The index estimates a $1.2 trillion wage risk nationwide, emphasizing that AI's economic exposure is far broader and more dispersed than surface employment statistics indicate.
Importantly, the Iceberg Index tools enable policymakers to simulate workforce scenarios at regional and local levels, helping states anticipate AI-driven disruptions and tailor reskilling programs. Tennessee has emerged as a leader in adopting the Iceberg Index within its AIforce Action Plan, using it to guide strategic investments in workforce training and infrastructure to soften AI’s impact.
State Senator DeAndrea Salvador of North Carolina, who has worked closely with MIT on this initiative, highlighted how the index uncovers hidden vulnerabilities, especially in rural and non-tech-centric areas often overlooked by conventional analyses. The Index presents a proactive tool to manage AI’s transformation of work rather than merely reacting to job losses after they occur.
While the Iceberg Index models current technical AI capabilities rather than future displacement, it underscores the urgency for coordinated response strategies involving governments, businesses, and education systems. Its data-driven insights empower decision-makers to balance AI adoption benefits with the social and economic challenges of workforce transitions nationwide.
